Do you hear the people sing Khamenie? Soon you'll be dead from cancer, or shot through the head; or end your days in exile living in Beirut or stinking Gaza.
On October 1st I published a work predicting that a civil war would rock the Islamic Republic of Iran bringing an end to 30 years of tyranny with the violent destruction of the Khomenie Regime. The work "The Coming Iranian Civil War (
see)" was based on an analysis of the Columbia Shuttle disaster (which has the downfall of the mullahs written all over it) and Iran's election of last June which triggered the current unrest. Now the chickens are coming home to roost for the mullahs and their minions.
On December 10th Iranian military leaders issued a letter warning the regime against oppressing the people (
see). There was some question about the letter's authenticity but now it seems fairly certain that it was real and that the Iranian military, composed mostly of (non-ideological) conscripts that reflect Iran's population, sees itself as the guardian of the people against the regime's violent crackdown on dissent. This could mean a coming confrontation with the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij Militia who support the regime.
Indeed, since the letter was issued a group calling itself the National Iranian Armed Resistance Forces (NIRU) posted a
news release on an Iranian protest website at the end of yesterday's violence. Part of the news release reads as follows:
"We, a number of Officers, Soldiers and personnel of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, hereby declare our readiness to rise to the armed defense of our nation against the forces of the criminal, illegitimate, transgressing* and occupying current Government of Iran, and hereby inform our brothers and sisters serving with the armed security forces to come join us and support us in this moral & national act. A special request for support & cooperation goes to our brothers of the Military Police."
*These words are from a Fatwa (religious edict) issued by Ayatollah Montazeri (see below).
Iran/Persia's army goes back thousands of years (the Revolutionary Guard goes back 30) and while they are not as well armed or trained as the Revolutionary Guard they are organizing for war perhaps with aid from Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan all of whom want regime change in Iran.
The stage is being set for civil war; Khamenie's and Ahmadenijad's days are numbered. How this will play out is anyone's guess. Will there be a bloodless coup by the Revolutionary Guard to save the purity of the revolution from the corrupt Khamenie and Ahmad-with both fleeing the country-leading to a counter revolution and civil war between the Guard and the Army? Or will the Guard and Militia close ranks around the regime and defend it with their lives aided by outside forces like Hezbollah, Hamas and al-Sadr's Mahdi Army?
As the Wall Street Journal reports yesterday's bloody and murderous crackdown by security forces has crossed a line not even seen during the shah's crackdown as it fell on the high holy days of Ashura when fighting and killing are forbidden by Shia Islam. This new surge of anti-regime violence coinciding with the death of Iran's revered dissident cleric Ayatollah Montazeri* making for an explosive situation signaling a violent end to the regime-prophetically anticipated six years ago by the earthquake that destroyed the city of Bam** and the Columbia disaster on the 24th anniversary of Khomeine's return to Iran (the start of the Revolution).
*Like Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani Montazeri condemned Iran's facist regime as unIslamic, illegitamate and oppressive. Although a supporter of the 1979 revolution Montazeri (like Sistani) believes in the separation of Moslem clerics from the state and that they should only have an advisory role to politicians. Montazeri gave religious legitamacy to the anti-regime movement meaning that it is blessed by God as a just and righteous cause..
**This was on December 26, 2003.
In any case Israel must stand down from its plan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities*. The death of Israeli air force pilot Ilan Ramon aboard the Columbia and that of his son last September while flying an F-16 (the plane used by his father in the Osiraq attack) was an ominous sign warning Israel against such an operation. Perhaps the chaos in Iran** is the central reason for Israel calling home its ambassadors worldwide for special meetings (
see).
.*Such an attack would bring unnecessary grief upon Israel as the anti-regime movement is fated to succeed.
** Iran's anti-regime movement opposes Hamas and Hezbollah and the mullahs expansive foreign policy and proxy wars against Israel and other countries in the Middle East.
Behind the smiling mask is a weak, little, vainglorious coward of a man missing out on history.
Postscript: Whose Side Is Obama On?
Protesters throughout Iran have been heard chanting the words "Obama! Either you're with us or against us!" As our self-serving, vainglorious, incompetent leader enjoys his Christmas vacation he is probably looking on the events convulsing Iran with cool indifference*. Why? Because there's nothing in it for him. If the protesters aided by the army succeed in toppling the regime Obama couldn't take any credit for it as Reagan did the success of Solidarity in Poland**. Regime change can do nothing for Obama and his legacy which at the moment looks quite bleak.
*Conspicuously absent from Obama's statement yesterday condemning the regime's bloody crackdown was any emotion or hint of indignation. Obama's heart was not in his words; he seemed completely detached and disengaged. Compare this to Reagan's forceful condemnation of martial law imposed on Poland. Obama is the anti-Reagan in everything and his legacy will be as grim as Reagan's legacy was heroically great, inspiring, great and exemplary (added 12-29).