A new underreported ABC/Washington Post poll, which must be shaking the post-convention confidence of Team Obama, finds a whopping 22% of registered voters uncommitted, uncertain and open ("persuadable") to changing their vote (see). Now these "persuadable" voters are not the undecideds (those who haven't chosen a candidate) but those who loosely, weakly or unenthusiastically support either candidate and could flip their preference before election day. Now this 22% is roughly what ABC/WAPO reported in July prior to the conventions. And what has to be worrying Obama and filling him with dread is the large number of wobbly, uncommitted "persuadables" supporting him going into the October debates.
Indeed, out of a favorability rating of 52% 37%, uneasy with Obama's mediocre presidency and staggering failures, are open to flipping to Romney or some other third party candidate (or perhaps not voting at all). That leaves Obama with only 19% of committed voters still fired up with 2008 levels of Hope n Change enthusiasm for his reelection*.
"Just did some digging and discovered that Rasmussen's polling is similar to ABC/WAPO. He found that among likely voters 19% enthusiastically support Obama and 31% don't. It's just as you say: Obama's support is very, very weak. At this point it's anyone's race and Romney's to win at the debates."
This poll irrefutably proves that the Democratic convention and vicious anti-Bain/ tax returns/ I suck but the other guy's worse campaign is flopping; it proves that the brouhahas over Romney's so-called "gaffes" aren't damaging him as many suppose. Indeed, the number of Obama supporters who could flip to Romney by election day hasn't changed since early summer-while the number of Romney's persuadables (as the report says) has dropped. In other words, Romney supporters are fired with more fervor for their candidate and his success than are Obama supporters for their man. This should surprise no one as America isn't prospering under Obama with things getting worse for Blacks, Latinos, women, seniors, young people and the broad middle class. At this late date this is awful news for any incumbent president who's running neck and neck with his challenger in national polls.
What the above means is that this election (with help from an October deluge of anti-Obama ads) will be decided by the debates. And given the magnitude of Obama's failures, broken promises, flip flops and lies (and events in the Middle East hurting his credibility on foreign policy) the debates greatly favor Mitt Romney. Indeed, Obama will be at a distinct disadvantage against the man who bested the brilliant Newt Gingrich in debate and seized the GOP nomination. As Newt said on Hannity Friday night: "If Romney is as hard on Obama as he was on me in Florida he'll walk away with the election." Newt absolutely nailed it. The Florida debate was the turning point for Romney who had just suffered a shellacking by Newt in South Carolina. Moreover, compared to Newt (author of 28 books, some best sellers) Barack Obama, a good debater but unexceptional, is a mental pipsqueak. At the first debate on October 3rd Romney will bring with him more deadly arrows in his quiver than he can fire at Obama. By the time Romney gets through with his attack Obama will look like a bleeding porcupine.
BUT WHAT ABOUT ROMNEY'S 47% REMARK?
I am amazed by all the GOP hand ringing over Romney's taped remark about the 47% Americans who are government dependent. As it turns out Romney is no more "insensitive" to poor and struggling middle class folks than most Americans who overwhelmingly agree with him about big government. Polls show that the American people are profoundly in an anti-big government mood believing that the federal government is too big, too costly and doing way, way more than it should (and is good) for the country. According to CNN 74% of Americans want a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution to reign in runaway federal spending (see #25). Gallup reports that 54% (vs 39%) believe "the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses (see)." "And 64%," according to Rasmussen, "believe that too many people are dependent on government (see and see)." In other words, Romney's limited government Conservatism is in sync with public opinion and the times; while Obama's progressive big government supremacist and redistribution agenda is hugely unpopular-continuing strong opposition to Obamacare reflects this (see).
So the only poll that really counts shows how pathetically weak and vulnerable Obama is; that he's lost much of his 2008 mojo, magic and mystique, and that politically he's a dead man walking into the worse day of his life.
WHAT DO THE SIGNS SAY ABOUT THE DEBATES?
That will be the subject of a separate piece to be posted just prior to the debates. But this much I'll say: they overwhelmingly favor Mitt Romney.